Bank of Ghana and PwC Forecast Sustained Cedi Stability as Inflation Targets 5% Mark

The Bank of Ghana (BoG) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Ghana have issued optimistic projections for the Ghana cedi, anticipating continued stability in the medium term despite recent market pressures. This positive outlook is underpinned by the central bank's aggressive foreign exchange (FX) intervention strategies, which have already seen a US$2.01 billion injection into the market to alleviate currency tensions. Analysts suggest that the cedi is now operating within a sustainable trading band, a sentiment echoed by BoG officials who noted a significant appreciation of over 3% in June 2026. This recovery signals a major milestone in Ghana's broader macroeconomic reset, providing much-needed relief to businesses and consumers alike.

Central to this stability are the BoG's Forex Intermediation and FX Intervention programs. To sustain the momentum gained in June, the central bank plans to inject an additional US$1 billion into the market throughout July 2026. Vish Ashiagbor, Country Senior Partner at PwC Ghana, emphasized that these monetary policy actions have successfully managed dollar demand, which is currently easing as businesses conclude their seasonal restocking cycles. While commercial bank rates have settled around GHt11.55 per dollar, retail markets have shown a mixed but resilient performance, with the cedi gaining approximately 1.46% in value at forex bureaux since the beginning of the year.

Complementing the currency's performance is a favorable forecast for inflation. Databank Research projects that Ghana’s headline inflation could dip below the 5% threshold in July 2026, potentially falling between 4.6% and 5.0% from the 5.3% recorded in June. This downward trend is expected to be driven by improved food supply conditions following the August harvest, cooling petroleum prices, and favorable base effects from the previous year. The convergence of a stable currency and low inflation is creating a more predictable economic environment, which the BoG aims to bolster through increased remittances and anticipated International Monetary Fund (IMF) related inflows.

However, authorities remain cautious regarding potential headwinds, particularly geopolitical instabilities that could disrupt global crude oil prices and drive up dollar demand. To ensure that this macroeconomic stability translates into tangible benefits for all citizens, the government is also focusing on inclusive growth initiatives, such as the launch of the Women’s Development Bank. This institution is designed to provide affordable financing to women-owned enterprises in sectors like agriculture and manufacturing, ensuring the "macro reset" supports community development. As the Mid-Year Budget Review approaches, the focus remains on balancing export competitiveness with the necessity of maintaining a stable exchange rate.