Ghana’s Economic Landscape: Mineral Royalties and Tax Revenues Surge Amidst Fiscal Pressures and Global Risks

Ghana's economic sector is witnessing a period of significant internal revenue growth contrasted by persistent fiscal challenges. The Minerals Income Investment Fund (MIIF) reported a substantial increase in mineral royalties, rising from GH¢3.91 billion in 2024 to GH¢5.43 billion in 2025. CEO Justina Nelson has indicated that this performance will serve as a benchmark for 2026, as the fund seeks to maximize national income from mineral wealth while reducing budgetary exposure. Complementing this growth, the Ghana Revenue Authority's (GRA) Ho Sector exceeded its 2025 revenue target by 16.73%, collecting GH¢82.47 million. These gains are part of a broader modernization drive by the GRA, which includes the implementation of the Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS) and a unified 15% VAT rate to enhance transparency and investment.

Despite these revenue successes, the government continues to face difficulties in the domestic debt market. For the second consecutive week, treasury bill auctions were undersubscribed by 20.14%, with the government raising GH¢3.93 billion against a GH¢4.93 billion target. Of the bids received, only GH¢3.23 billion were accepted. This liquidity squeeze is accompanied by rising interest rates across the yield curve; the 91-day bill yield has climbed to 4.81%, the 182-day bill to 6.62%, and the 364-day bill to 9.77%. The most popular instrument remains the 91-day bill, which saw GH¢2.55 billion in tenders, reflecting investor preference for shorter-term maturities in an uncertain interest rate environment.

Adding to domestic pressures are external risks highlighted by the Bank of Ghana (BoG), particularly regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The central bank warned that a prolonged conflict or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive global crude oil prices above US$100 per barrel, with some scenarios reaching US$150. Such a spike would significantly increase Ghana's energy import bill, deplete foreign exchange reserves, and fuel inflation. However, the BoG remains confident in the country's resilience, citing robust international reserves. Under the Ghana Accelerated National Reserves Accumulation Policy (GANRAP), the central bank projects that reserves will provide 15 months of import cover by the 2026-2028 period, offering a buffer against exchange rate volatility.

Looking ahead to 2026, the government is focusing on structural reforms to sustain economic stability. The GRA has designated 2026 as the "Year of Compliance," aiming to close the VAT gap and improve the investment climate through legislative updates like the Ghana Investment Promotion Authority Bill 2025. Simultaneously, MIIF is working to clarify its operational framework and legislative amendments to foster better transparency and media relations. These combined efforts across the mining, tax, and monetary sectors are designed to create a more competitive business environment capable of enduring external shocks while driving long-term job creation and national development.