ISSER warns Ghana against over-reliance on gold and cocoa exports

The Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) has cautioned the Ghanaian government against its continued over-reliance on gold and cocoa exports, despite a positive economic performance in 2025. In its latest State of the Ghanaian Economy Report, the institute revealed that while Ghana’s trade surplus surged from $3.8 billion to $13.8 billion, the country’s export structure remains dangerously undiversified. ISSER noted that this dependence on primary commodities leaves the economy exposed to the volatile fluctuations of global commodity prices, necessitating an urgent shift toward manufactured and processed goods.

The report highlighted a strong overall economic performance, with Ghana’s GDP growing by 6.0% in 2025, a rate that outpaces both the global and sub-Saharan African averages. This growth was primarily fueled by the services and agriculture sectors, contributing to a significant drop in year-end inflation to 5.4% and a stabilizing local currency. However, ISSER pointed out that industrial growth has slowed, and the benefits of the expansion are not yet reaching all segments of the population. The institute urged the government to focus on translating these macroeconomic gains into productive employment and better-quality jobs, particularly for the nation's youth.

On the fiscal front, ISSER observed that Ghana achieved a remarkable consolidation as the overall budget deficit narrowed from 7.9% to 1.0% of GDP. However, researchers warned that this improvement was largely driven by aggressive expenditure restraint rather than robust revenue growth. Capital expenditure notably declined from 2.5% to 1.4% of GDP, a trend that could undermine long-term infrastructure development. To sustain fiscal stability, the report recommends that the government prioritize domestic revenue mobilization by broadening the tax base and improving compliance, rather than relying solely on spending cuts.

Looking ahead, ISSER emphasized that long-term economic resilience depends on structural transformation and enhanced domestic value addition. While non-traditional exports saw a healthy 30.7% increase, the institute maintains that the government must do more to support industrialization and improve infrastructure. By diversifying production and ensuring that fiscal discipline does not compromise essential investments, Ghana can better protect itself from external shocks and ensure that its current economic stability leads to sustainable and inclusive development.